- The better news flow continued on the coronavirus front. New global coronavirus cases are continuing to trend down.
Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital
- Most regions are seeing a downtrend in new cases. Asia, South America and Africa are all trending down, the US looks to have rolled over as the lowly vaccinated South slows and Europe looks to have stabilised. China has seen some more clusters, but numbers are low.
Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital
- Vaccines are continuing to work in helping prevent serious illness. Hospitalisations and deaths remain relatively subdued compared to previous waves in Europe and the UK. And Israel is seeing a stabilisation or slowing in new cases, hospitalisations and deaths, likely helped by booster shots.
Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital
- 46% of people globally and 70% in developed countries have now had at least one dose of vaccine.
Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital
- The key risks to watch out for are:
- a renewed spike in cases in developed countries into the northern winter (given 30% are unvaccinated and vaccines are only 60 to 80% effective in preventing infection) & as vaccine efficacy may start to wane without booster shots;
- the low coverage in poor countries – US moves to ramp up vaccine donations and support a goal of vaccinating 70% of the global population is a good move: and
- the risk of more deadly/more transmissible mutations.
- New Australian cases may have peaked (for now). Victorian cases are still surging, but NSW and the ACT are down from their highs and NSW’s effective reproduction rate is below 1.
Source: covid19data.com.au, AMP Capital
- 60% of Australia’s whole population has now had at least one vaccine dose and the daily vaccination rate is running at 1.2% of the population.
Source: ourworldindata.org, AMP Capital
- Key vaccine targets are on track to be met in October and November, starting in NSW. The next chart shows a projection of when NSW, Victoria and Australia will meet adult vaccination targets for one dose based on an extrapolation of the average daily vaccination rates seen in the last 7 days. Note that for first doses, NSW is through 80%, Victoria through 70% and Australian through 70%.
Source: Covid19data.com.au, AMP Capital
- On the basis of this projection the following table shows roughly when key double dose vaccination target dates will be met based on the current lag between 1st and 2nd doses. NSW will hit the 70% of adults target around 5th October, Victoria around 31st October (although as seen in NSW it will likely speed up) and Australia on average around 25th October. At the current rate Australia could hit 80% of the whole population fully vaccinated by 11th December – which is what we should ideally be aiming for at least, given the risks around Delta!
* Current gap in days between 1st and 2nd doses. Source: AMP Capital
- So, NSW is on track to start reopening by the second week of October, Victoria in late October/early November and the ACT (not shown) in mid-October. Ideally this should remain gradual initially until higher vaccination rates are met in order to avoid problems in the hospital system and hence setbacks. A surge in cases to record levels in Singapore (despite being 82% vaccinated) highlights that reopening probably won’t be smooth sailing. So far Singapore’s serious cases and deaths are remaining low (helped by vaccines) – although its early days.
- Meanwhile, vaccination is continuing to help keep serious illness down. Coronavirus case data for NSW shows that the fully vaccinated make up a low proportion of hospitalisations.
Source: NSW Health, AMP Capital
- Consistent with this, the level of deaths (the red line in the next chart) are running at around 20% of the level predicted on the basis of the previous wave (dashed line).
Source: ourworldindata.org, covid19data.com.au, AMP Capital
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