Someday Is Not a Succession Plan

The Largest Business Handover in Australian History

Around 1.4 million Australian business owners are expected to retire by 2036, and roughly one in three have no succession plan (AFR, 27 May 2026).

That’s usually where these articles stop.

The statistic alone doesn’t make the point. The more useful question is why so many otherwise disciplined owners keep deferring the single largest financial event of their lives. The answer is rarely financial. Succession forces two uncomfortable admissions at once: that the business can run without them, and that they must decide who they are when it does. Selling the spreadsheet is easy. Selling the self-image is hard.

Here’s the timely part. Globally, this is one of the hottest deal markets in history — global mergers & acquisitions hit a record $2.8 trillion in the first half of 2026, up 48% on a year earlier.

But look underneath the headline: the number of deals actually fell to a six-year low. The money is chasing fewer, bigger, better-prepared businesses. Buyers are flush with capital and highly selective.

And the gap is measurable. Businesses with documented systems and a capable management team reportedly change hands at around 3.5–5x EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation); those that depend on the founder often struggle to reach 1.5–2x — if they sell at all.

That’s the warning for Australia’s retiring owners. When a wave of small, sale-ready-in-name-only businesses reaches the market at once, a hot market doesn’t rescue the unprepared — it simply lets buyers pick. And “someday” is getting more expensive on tax, too: from 1 July 2027, the CGT overhaul replaces the 50% discount with indexation and a 30% minimum tax, and even pre-CGT assets are pulled into the net. The longer the plan is deferred, the fewer levers remain.

The owners who transition well separate the business decision from the personal one, and they start early — while there’s still time to groom a successor, build scale, or bring family into the conversation before it becomes a negotiation.

→ Our read: In the strongest deal market in history, capital is chasing the prepared. Being unprepared doesn’t just lower your price — it can mean being passed over entirely.