FinSec Blog

28th June 2024 Market Update Another RBA meeting, another month of rates on hold at 4.35%. This remains unchanged for six months. Governor Bullock has expressed concern about potential upside risks to inflation and reserved the right for further rate hikes. So...No reprieve for mortgage holders just yet. Our view remains unchanged: a policy rate of 4.35% is materially tight. You can see this in the percentage of household income being set aside to pay mortgages and it is clearly slowing growth. Australian real GDP [...]

31st May 2024 Federal Budget '24: Soothing Inflation Instead of Fighting it? Australian Federal Budgets rarely make anyone happy. Something about the media hype 48 hours or so around Budget night seems to infect broader Australia with the grumps as everyone makes hay piling in on the Treasurer and his economic plan. Economist Chris Richardson, writing in the AFR, confessed to being particularly grumpy about Jim Chalmer’s Budget claiming it is rich in politics, and poor on policy. The Government expects its cost-of-living package ($3.5bn worth of [...]

24th April 2024 Market Overview Just when we were getting used to the idea of markets looking ahead into a recovery, April has seen a reality check. Having rallied by 17% since October a combination of an escalation in the Middle East and the realisation by markets that rates might be higher for longer, saw the calendar year’s gains (about 3.5% at the peak) taken away in a matter of days. Inflation is proving stickier than expected meaning markets have repriced on the assumption that [...]

15th March 2024 Glass half-full approach as we see some silver linings When Treasurer Jim Chalmers took to the media lectern to welcome December quarter GDP figures showing the very slimmest of growth (0.2 per cent), he embodied the true definition of a “glass half-full” kind of person. “Even weak growth is welcome growth in the circumstances,” Treasurer Chalmers said, as annual growth slumped to just 1.5 per cent, the lowest rate of growth since the dot com crash of 2000 (outside of the pandemic [...]

16th February 2024 Will the Year of the Dragon spell good luck for the Australian economy? Just when we thought it was far too late to be wishing you a Happy New Year... we welcome the Chinese Year of the Dragon. In Chinese culture, the Dragon holds a significant place as an auspicious and extraordinary creature, unparallelled in talent and excellence. It symbolizes power, nobility, honour, luck and success - and 2024 is forecast to bring about opportunities, changes and challenges. Precisely what challenges and [...]

15th December 2023 Yes, Virginia, there is a rate pause (and possible Fed cuts coming into view) Dear readers, it’s that time of year again, when we put the finishing touches on December and pause to reflect not only on the past 12 months but turn our minds to all the possibilities a New Year brings. There’s no question it’s been a turbulent economic year, as white-knuckled Central Banks have tried desperately to put the brakes on rampant inflation - and, in doing so, put [...]

17th November 2023 Market Update Christmas may be around the corner, but it’s been hard to escape the depressing reality of the news cycle in recent weeks. The war between Israel and Hamas is stoking growing fears of a wider Middle East conflict and far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships. These fears, understandably, are casting a dark shadow over the global economy as it limps out of the shocks of COVID-19 and the Ukraine war. Jamie Dimon, chief executive [...]