2nd June 2023 Never let a good crisis go to waste! The biggest macroeconomic swing factor in global markets of the past few weeks has been the ongoing impasse around the US Debt Ceiling. And, whilst resolved for now (in principle - there are still a few bridges to cross), in considering these types of situations, it may be oddly helpful to remind ourselves that the US is home to many of the best businesses in the world. As [...]
19th May 2023 Former Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens knows all too well how long inflation can hang around. This week he warned Australians of the difficult road ahead. The current Macquarie Bank chairman told a conference this week that so-called ‘soft landings’ are pretty uncommon. When they have happened, he said, they have been in the context of “more favourable trend developments in supply than we appear to see at present”. He was speaking at the Australian Petroleum [...]
5th May 2023 It's reached the stage where the RBA cash rate leads the news every few weeks. After this week's increase to 3.85%, the 11th in a year, it's not difficult to conclude that Governor Philip Lowe will most likely use the remaining four months of his term to quash inflation, even if the consequences for some borrowers are a little dire (Australians are definitely feeling it. Consumer credit agency Equifax reports a large increase in demand for credit [...]
21st April 2023 It's that time of year again! In a few weeks, on 9 May 2023 at 7.30pm, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver the Federal Budget for 2023/24. Last year, an earlier 'election budget' was presented in April by Josh Frydenberg, and then Chalmers handed down a light interim Budget in October 2022. The next one will be more substantial, delivered by a Treasurer who has signalled his time in office will not be wasted. “No man ever [...]
6th April 2023 Last week, the director of AFR insights James Daggar-Nickson, received an unsolicited text. It was supposedly from a 22 year old woman from China eager to make the acquaintance of a 'well-mannered' man (and presumably obtain his bank account details). The message couldn't have been more fortuitous, not only because we're sure James probably does have lovely manners, but because he was at that moment emceeing The Australian Financial Review Banking Summit, at which scams was [...]
10th March 2023As experts begin to unpack the proposed new tax on super accounts above $3m, the true consequences of the measure are starting to show. And Chalmers is now in full defence mode. In one press conference over the weekend, within a few sentences, he said the word 'modest' five times and 'simple' four times.It's a Shakespearean reminder of Hamlet, where his mother, Gertrude, is asked about the queen in a play who repeatedly states she would not remarry [...]
24th February 2023 Any hope that superannuation regulations will remain unchanged again in the next Federal Budget on 9 May 2023 is fading fast. Super was untouched in 2022, but the Financial Services Minister, Stephen Jones, has done enough jawboning to indicate he is ready to strike. And, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (National Press Club) making the below comment yesterday, it seems the super wars could be back on. “We said that we would not have any major changes in [...]
10th February 2023Welcome to the first issue of the View for 2023. After a January sabbatical (editorially speaking), it is good to be back, and we trust all our readers had an enjoyable holiday break. This year, more than usual, it feels like a time to stocktake and check one's goals for the year ahead. Nobody hands out a card that profiles the future, and everybody needs to plan their own 2023 objectives, including financial and investment goals based on [...]
16th December 2022 'Tis the season when the world's strategists, economists and analysts gaze into their crystal balls and make predictions for the year ahead. And on the surface, at least, it looks like a pretty 'meh' year ahead, with both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley tipping the S&P 500 - the key benchmark for global share market sentiment - will finish 2023 either flat or slightly lower than 2022. But dig a little deeper, and the next 12 [...]
2nd December 2022 "Sorry" probably isn't the usual rhetoric to feature amongst the barbs traded in Parliament House. But, when Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe appeared before the senate economics committee on Monday, it was mea culpa all the way. It seemed a classic political move when Greens Treasury spokesman Nick McKim asked Lowe whether borrowers who had been "induced" into taking out mortgages based on the central bank's guidance were owed an apology. Surprisingly, it was not just one sorry, [...]