The FinSec View

15th December 2023 Yes, Virginia, there is a rate pause (and possible Fed cuts coming into view) Dear readers, it’s that time of year again, when we put the finishing touches on December and pause to reflect not only on the past 12 months but turn our minds to all the possibilities a New Year brings. There’s no question it’s been a turbulent economic year, as white-knuckled Central Banks have tried desperately to put the brakes on rampant inflation [...]

17th November 2023 Market Update Christmas may be around the corner, but it’s been hard to escape the depressing reality of the news cycle in recent weeks. The war between Israel and Hamas is stoking growing fears of a wider Middle East conflict and far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships. These fears, understandably, are casting a dark shadow over the global economy as it limps out of the shocks of COVID-19 and the [...]

13th October 2023 Plot Twist as Market Braces for 'Higher for Longer' Narrative Any author knows the value of a good plot twist - or two, or three. The name of the game, of course, is to keep readers guessing. To keep them navigating the carefully constructed twists and turns until there’s some ‘a-ha’ moment of clarity. And so, it seems, the US Federal Reserve is writing an intriguing page turner - one that’s souring sentiment and prompting investors [...]

15th September 2023 Navigating by the stars under cloudy skies - Jackson Hole’s inflation forecast The majestic Grand Teton mountain range in Wyoming, US, provided a striking backdrop for the high-profile annual Jackson Hole economic retreat last month, with financial markets watching the event as closely as the area’s native hawks. The annual get-together of top central bankers (including our own Dr Philip Lowe for the final time before he passed the baton to Michele Bullock) is significant, because [...]

11th August 2023 Analysts of late seem to have taken a cue from a classic suspense movie - dramatic, unpredictable, and leaving us a little scared to look. The script is laced with economic intrigue, with job data serving both as the protagonist and antagonist, inflation stealing the show, and the Central Bank's next move dripping with tension. Such is the current nature of 'things' that the perpetual output from many of these analysts look like contradictory guesses. Forecasts [...]

31st July 2023 Esteemed readers, we extend our sincerest apologies for the postponement of our usual Friday newsletter. Alas, the elusive "Fridayitis" mischievously intervened, causing a slight disruption to our regular schedule. While the allure of Friday's impending weekend escapades is undeniably captivating, there's a special charm to discovering something on Monday. Amidst the bustle of fresh possibilities and renewed focus, we hope delving into a captivating read can invigorate your week. With this we hope you embrace this [...]

14th July 2023 Fear drives many facets of our lives. In her book "Fear Less", Dr Pippa Grange, a renowned psychologist who works extensively with elite athletes and sports teams (including the Australian Olympic team), highlights the pervasive role fear has in our lives. She argues that fear is often what holds us back from fulfilment and true success, and the ability to recognise and diminish its influence can lead to a transformative change. According to Grange, there are [...]

30th June 2023 An article by business columnist Robert Gottliebsen published in the Australian yesterday, summarised beautifully recent discussions we at FinSec have been having around inflation and interest rates - so much so the comment “did we write this?” was made. It is a conundrum that lies in the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) ability to use conventional interest rate mechanisms to bring inflation below the four per cent mark. While we briefly touched upon this subject in [...]

16th June 2023 Earlier this week, the Albanese government released its first response to the Quality of Advice Review (QAR), an independent review commissioned by the previous government (led by Michelle Levy) with the goal of simplifying the laws governing financial advice. It has accepted 14 of the review's recommendations "in full or in principle" but left the door open on eight more. As a financial advice firm, we have been very hopeful about the results of this review, [...]

2nd June 2023 Never let a good crisis go to waste! The biggest macroeconomic swing factor in global markets of the past few weeks has been the ongoing impasse around the US Debt Ceiling. And, whilst resolved for now (in principle - there are still a few bridges to cross), in considering these types of situations, it may be oddly helpful to remind ourselves that the US is home to many of the best businesses in the world. As [...]