The FinSec View

25th October 2024Australian Market UpdateThe ASX 200 started October strongly, buoyed by optimism surrounding global economic stability and China’s stimulus package before reaching new record territory mid-month. On October 15, it briefly sat at 8,331 points, and according to Reuters is up overall more than 18% since the same time last year. This week however, the reality of the timing of any potential rate cuts saw a reality check and the market is back to where it started the month.Materials, [...]

27th September 2024 Australian Market Update We’re at the end of September but its two data points from August that were released in the past week that are the headline news. First, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred inflation gauge, “trimmed mean inflation”, rose to 3.4% in August, indicating persistent underlying price pressures. The RBA is expecting this gauge to remain above its target band until late 2025. Second, annual inflation or Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 2.7 [...]

30th August 2024 Australian Market Update Having started the month with a 6% market correction in reaction to a sharper than expected uptick in US unemployment we finish the month exactly where we finished July. Nothing to see here, onwards and upwards!! After lukewarm if not cold predictions of a likely rate cut this side of Christmas, financial markets at the start of this week started confidently pricing in a cut by Christmas and another two by May 2025. [...]

26th July 2024 Global Affairs and Market Update There is a lot going on in the world right now! The combination of favourable weather in the northern hemisphere, several major cultural and national celebrations, annual sporting events such as Tour de France, Wimbledon and The Open, in addition to the Olympics, has meant this July has been a particularly active and eventful month globally. Politically, we’ ve seen the UK dump the Conservatives after 14 years and elect a [...]

28th June 2024 Market Update Another RBA meeting, another month of rates on hold at 4.35%. This remains unchanged for six months. Governor Bullock has expressed concern about potential upside risks to inflation and reserved the right for further rate hikes. So...No reprieve for mortgage holders just yet. Our view remains unchanged: a policy rate of 4.35% is materially tight. You can see this in the percentage of household income being set aside to pay mortgages and it is [...]

31st May 2024 Federal Budget '24: Soothing Inflation Instead of Fighting it? Australian Federal Budgets rarely make anyone happy. Something about the media hype 48 hours or so around Budget night seems to infect broader Australia with the grumps as everyone makes hay piling in on the Treasurer and his economic plan. Economist Chris Richardson, writing in the AFR, confessed to being particularly grumpy about Jim Chalmer’s Budget claiming it is rich in politics, and poor on policy. The Government expects [...]

24th April 2024 Market Overview Just when we were getting used to the idea of markets looking ahead into a recovery, April has seen a reality check. Having rallied by 17% since October a combination of an escalation in the Middle East and the realisation by markets that rates might be higher for longer, saw the calendar year’s gains (about 3.5% at the peak) taken away in a matter of days. Inflation is proving stickier than expected meaning markets [...]

15th March 2024 Glass half-full approach as we see some silver linings When Treasurer Jim Chalmers took to the media lectern to welcome December quarter GDP figures showing the very slimmest of growth (0.2 per cent), he embodied the true definition of a “glass half-full” kind of person. “Even weak growth is welcome growth in the circumstances,” Treasurer Chalmers said, as annual growth slumped to just 1.5 per cent, the lowest rate of growth since the dot com crash [...]

16th February 2024 Will the Year of the Dragon spell good luck for the Australian economy? Just when we thought it was far too late to be wishing you a Happy New Year... we welcome the Chinese Year of the Dragon. In Chinese culture, the Dragon holds a significant place as an auspicious and extraordinary creature, unparallelled in talent and excellence. It symbolizes power, nobility, honour, luck and success - and 2024 is forecast to bring about opportunities, changes [...]

15th December 2023 Yes, Virginia, there is a rate pause (and possible Fed cuts coming into view) Dear readers, it’s that time of year again, when we put the finishing touches on December and pause to reflect not only on the past 12 months but turn our minds to all the possibilities a New Year brings. There’s no question it’s been a turbulent economic year, as white-knuckled Central Banks have tried desperately to put the brakes on rampant inflation [...]